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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number	NIA_SSEN_0043
Title	Whole System Growth Scenario Modelling Phase 2
Status	Completed
Energy Categories	Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy Models) 90%; Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution) 10%;
Research Types	Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields	ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 100%
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation	Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Energy modelling) 100%
Principal Investigator	Project Contact No email address given Scottish and Southern Energy plc
Award Type	Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source	Ofgem
Start Date	01 January 2020
End Date	30 June 2023
Duration	ENA months
Total Grant Value	£853,000
Industrial Sectors	Power
Region	Scotland
Programme	Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators	Principal Investigator	Project Contact , Scottish and Southern Energy plc (100.000%)
	Industrial Collaborator	Project Contact , Scottish and Southern Energy plc (0.000%)
Web Site	https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA_SSEN_0043
Objectives	This project will be carried out using a staged approach including research, model refinement, optimisation and dissemination phases. The learnings from each stage will be used to inform the strategic investment required to ensure the continued security and resilience of the network, whilst facilitating whole system planning to meet the needs of stakeholders, as well as producing outputs which will help inform the development of future strategies. This coordinated approach will facilitate the growth and implementation of the low carbon technologies required to achieve the low carbon transition, especially transport and heat.The project will build on the existing work on Regional Energy Scenarios undertaken by SSEN and includes collaborating and consulting with stakeholders such as Transport for Scotland, Scottish Government, local authorities and council, social landlords etc. All these stakeholders have significant knowledge and experience in their respective areas, which will help to ensure that the model outputs are relevant and reflective of their needs. The method will follow the stages outlined below:Stage 1 – ResearchInitially, understand what new requirements and expectations will be placed on local authorities in terms of low carbon technology planning and strategies. This will inform and validate what outputs are required to both inform and reflect the economic planning needs of local authority users within the model that will be refined in Stage 2.This stage will research and collate projected EV uptake, future projects for both transport and heat as well as the local strategies (LHEES) and Local Area Energy Plans (LAEP) to understand changes in demand. This will help to develop a range of future scenarios for a local area.Engagement sessions will be held with Scotland Gas Networks (SGN) to understand data availability for gas elements within the model and to validate data used in the initial version of the model (produced by the previous project).  This will also include a review of current thinking from ongoing industry initiatives such as Open Networks and previous projects such as Green City Vision to avoid duplication. The project will also ensure it aligns and coordinates with other whole system projects which are underway, albeit with a different geography and focus. Stage 2 – Model Enhancement This stage will look to simplify and refine the model produced in the first project to provide more granularity of the impact that low carbon technologies will have on the distribution network. The enhancements to the model will also reflect the new economic and sustainable targets, requirements for local strategies and refined gas network data developed in Stage 1. The project will also utilise the outputs from the Regional Energy Scenarios already published by SSEN as part of DSO preparations.  Where possible, the model enhancements will incorporate access rights and charging options being developed in the SCR process (if available) – this will help users to understand potential ongoing implications of their actions.  Stage 3 – Optimisation Based on the various scenarios and using the enhanced model developed in Stage 2, the model will look to optimise outputs based on local priorities. This will include identification of key parameters to be tracked to allow calibration of the model outputs. This will include the regional energy scenarios produced by SSEN and Future Energy Scenarios to identify future load growth and low carbon technology uptake.  Using the outputs identified in stage 1, this stage will look to validate the findings and outputs in an environment of accelerated EV uptake etc.Stage 4 – Stakeholder Engagement and Dissemination The final stage will deliver training and support to stakeholders to help them with the development of sustainable transport, development and housing policies. This will include how to utilise the tool, assessing its use and updating and maintaining key components. This project would look to inform business as usual outputs for whole system planning to meet the needs of network licensees and local stakeholders as well as recommendations for GB. The learning will be disseminated to local and national stakeholders as well as network licensees. The scope of the project is to carry out whole system planning and modelling to a more granular level (11kv distribution network) to understand the impact of low carbon technologies and local authorities strategies. The project will inform whole system methodology and will capture benefits for GB as a whole, from both a network planning and local stakeholders perspective. 1 Enhance a model tool to incorporate new governmental targets for economic and sustainable action plans and provide greater granularity by incorporating the 11kv network. 2 Understand the possible patterns of change associated with the Scottish Government 2045 climate change targets (Note: the UK target is 2050) in the distribution networks served by a single Grid Supply Point in an area of accelerated EV growth. Develop optimum solutions to meet whole system needs. 3 Validate and calibrate inputs for whole system planning with existing or planned requirements/expectations for the Local Authorities to avoid unnecessary extra work in producing local energy plans/strategies. 4 Develop a methodology and framework that allows the two-way transfer of knowledge and understanding between network operators and those that make investment decisions in the areas served by the network, to facilitate efficient whole system planning.
Abstract	This project follows on from NIA_SSEN_0030 Whole-System Growth Scenario Modelling, which developed an initial model tool which demonstrated network impacts and informed possible investment decisions over a two-decade time period.
Publications	(none)
Final Report	(none)
Added to Database	02/11/22